报告题目：Detection of infection sources for avian influenza A(H7N9) in live poultry transport network during the fifth wave in China（中国第五次禽流感流行期间现实禽运输网络中甲型H7N9禽流感传染源的检测）
报告人：靳祯教授 （山西大学复杂系统研究所）
报告时间：2019年3月18日（星期一）下午16:00-17:00
报告地点：beat365手机版官方网站二楼会议室
报告摘要：Numerous studies have demonstrated that exposure to live poultry or live poultry market is the significant risk factor for human beings infected with A(H7N9). However, the issue about which explicit live poultry markets are the infection sources of the A(H7N9) human cases, has not been explored so far. In this paper, we extract the data associated with poultry farm, live poultry market and farmers' market from BaiDu Map API by writing JavaScript language, and then construct the live poultry transport network. The A(H7N9) transmission model based on probabilistic discrete-time Markov chains is established. On the basis of the obtained network and model, we propose space-time backward detection and forward transmission algorithm to detect the most likely infection sources and compute the first arrival time of infection sources, and then analyze their characteristics. The results reveal that, besides live poultry market, backyard poultry is also contribute to A(H7N9) human infections and the risk of it is high especially in the fifth wave in the newly infected provinces. Furthermore, we give the most likely spread map of A(H7N9) virus along live poultry transport network. In particular, by analyzing the temperature characteristics on arrival time of infection sources, we find that the survival and infection risk of A(H7N9) virus is high, moderate and low when the temperature is 9˚C~19˚C, 0˚C~9˚C or 19˚C~25˚C, and < 0˚C or > 25˚C, respectively. Our discovery suggests that strengthening supervision and immunization for live poultry market and backyard poultry at temperature 9˚C~19˚C, will be effective to bring avian influenza A(H7N9) under control in the future.
靳祯教授简介：靳祯，山西大学二级教授。现任山西省数学会理事长，中国生物数学学会副理事长，中国数学会理事，SCI源刊Plos One、International J. Biomathematics等编委，美国《Mathematical Reviews》评论员，德国《数学文摘》评论员。曾获教育部新世纪优秀人才、山西省教学名师、全国优秀教师等荣誉，享受国务院政府特殊津贴。目前是山西省科技创新团队带头人，山西省“疾病防控的数学技术与大数据分析”重点实验室主任。多次参加国家自然科学奖、国家重点研发项目及国家基金数理学部项目的会评。主要从事生物数学及复杂网络研究工作，先后主持国家自然基金数理学部、信息学部项目共6项，其中国家基金重点项目1项。作为第一完成人2010年获得山西省科学技术奖（自然科学类）一等奖、2014年获得教育部高等学校优秀成果二等奖（自然科学类）。